11 月 3 日（星期二）：X 上講咗乜

IRAN: STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL REMAIN CLOSED UNTIL US MEETS SEVEN CONDITIONS
Rezaee says Washington's response to Iran's demands has been insufficient, insisting that the US must explicitly address and fulfill all seven Iranian conditions.
He stressed that the Strait of Hormuz will only reopen once those conditions are fully met.

伊朗：美國未滿足七項條件之前，荷姆茲海峽會繼續關閉。Rezaee 話華府對伊朗要求嘅回應唔足夠，堅持美國要明確處理同做齊伊朗全部七項條件。佢強調，要等呢啲條件完全做到，荷姆茲海峽先會重開。

ANTHROPIC ENGINEERS FOUND CLAUDE CUTS TIME TAKEN TO DESIGN CHIPS COMPARED TO THEIR ESTIMATES OF WORKFLOWS AT DESIGNERS SUCH AS NVIDIA, AMD- THE INFORMATION

The Information：Anthropic 工程師發現，同佢哋對 Nvidia、AMD 等設計公司工作流程嘅估算比較，Claude 縮短咗設計晶片所需嘅時間。

Anxiety around capex is extremely high. A number of bond issues launched yesterday reinforce the question around the cost and availability of capital. There are bull and bear takes on both sides, but the multiple compression is striking. The SOX on a blended 24 month forward basis is around 12.16x p/e, through Liberation Day and Iran escalation lows...approaching 2022 levels. Nvidia is at 10x, its lowest multiple since 2013 (blended 24mf). What is the market trying to tell us? That there is significant risk to estimates and potentially 2027 is a peak, as the cost of capital and the capacity to finance the buildout constrain how quickly companies can move. There are parallels to tech in the late 90s… building capacity before there was enough use for it. The bull case, and I’m probably more in this camp, is that the use cases are still largely untapped. Robotics has barely started, enterprise IT workflow automation has barely scaled across legacy stacks. But corporate balance sheet capacity and debt market limits are real and binding.

大家對資本開支嘅焦慮極高。尋日推出嘅幾批債券，更加令人質疑資金成本同資金夠唔夠。樂觀同悲觀兩邊都有睇法，但估值收縮好驚人。費城半導體指數以混合 24 個月遠期計，市盈率約 12.16 倍，低過「解放日」同伊朗局勢升級時嘅低位……接近 2022 年水平。Nvidia 係 10 倍，係 2013 年以嚟最低（混合 24 個月遠期）。市場想話俾我哋知咩？就係盈利預測有好大風險，2027 年可能係高峰，因為資金成本同為擴建融資嘅能力，會限制公司推進嘅速度。同 90 年代尾嘅科技股有相似之處……喺用量未夠之前就起產能。樂觀嘅睇法——我大概都係呢一派——係應用場景大部分仲未開發。機械人先啱啱起步，企業 IT 流程自動化喺舊系統上面仲未大規模鋪開。但企業資產負債表嘅承受力同債市嘅限制，係真實而且有約束力嘅。

*ACKMAN SAYS NETFLIX STOCK 'INCREDIBLY CHEAP'

Ackman 話 Netflix 股價「極度便宜」。

What that means for markets so far is defensive de-risking, with investors cautious to commit to new long positions until the Congressional balance of power starts to become clearer.

到目前為止，對市場嚟講即係防守性減低風險，投資者喺國會勢力分佈開始明朗之前，都好謹慎，唔敢建立新嘅持倉。

BRENT, U.S. WTI CRUDE FUTURES TURN NEGATIVE FALL NEARLY 3% AFTER US PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS US WILL STOP PAYING ISRAEL AFTER YEAR-END

布蘭特、美國 WTI 原油期貨轉跌，跌近 3%，因為美國總統特朗普話美國年底後會停止俾錢以色列。

BREAKING: Shopify stock, $SHOP, falls over -15% after reporting weaker than expected Q3 earnings.

突發：Shopify 公佈第三季業績遜預期之後，股價跌超過 15%。

ANTHROPIC TO HAVE OVER 3.5GW COMPUTING POWER BY END 2026 - NYT

紐約時報：Anthropic 喺 2026 年底前會有超過 3.5GW 運算能力。

GOLDMAN SACHS: HEDGE FUNDS CUT LEVERAGE AT FASTEST PACE SINCE MARCH
Hedge funds aggressively reduced risk in October, with net leverage falling 4.2 percentage points to 73.4%.
Goldman Sachs reported approximately $20 billion in technology-stock sales over two weeks, while five consecutive sessions of AI-stock selling erased cumulative net purchases since early 2025.
Fundamental long-short funds lost 3.5%, while systematic strategies declined 3.6%.
Selling concentrated in technology, industrials and materials, while healthcare and real estate attracted buying.

高盛：對沖基金降槓桿速度係三月以嚟最快。對沖基金十月大幅減低風險，淨槓桿跌 4.2 個百分點至 73.4%。高盛錄得兩星期內約 20 billion 美元科技股沽盤，而連續五個交易日沽 AI 股，抹走咗 2025 年初以嚟累積嘅淨流入。基本面長短倉基金蝕 3.5%，系統性策略跌 3.6%。沽盤集中喺科技、工業同原材料，醫療同房地產就有資金流入。